Search Results for: cpi
Measuring Recession
September 20th, 2019
Using nominal GDP, or GDP deflated by the CPI, as the principal guide to the state of the economy is a common mistake which will eventually prove very costly. Having convinced themselves that GDP measures economic progress, government ...
Stalling Markets
July 22nd, 2019
The combination of American trade protectionism and the end of a failing credit expansion is leading into a global economic downturn, and potentially a systemic crisis. Meanwhile, investors still believe more extreme monetary policies will stabilise economies and ...
Investors wrap: U.S. futures, Europe stocks mark time before Fed meeting
June 19th, 2019
U.S. equity-index futures and European stocks entered a holding pattern on Wednesday and Treasuries were steady before the conclusion of a Federal Reserve meeting where investors anticipate policy makers will signal a readiness to lower rates. Contracts for the ...
The US Government Debt Crisis
May 2nd, 2019
This article explains why the US Government is ensnared in a debt trap from which there is no escape. Its finances are spiralling out of control. In the context of a rapidly slowing global economy, the budget deficit ...
Pound US Dollar exchange rate under pressure
March 21st, 2019
News that Theresa May will only ask for a three month extension to the Brexit deadline saw the Pound Sterling to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate slump further. Investors were disappointed by May’s decision not to seek a longer ...
The Arrival Of The Credit Crisis
January 2nd, 2019
Those of us who closely follow the credit cycle should not be surprised by the current slide in equity markets. It was going to happen anyway. The timing had recently become apparent as well, and in early August I ...
Time Is Money, Money Is Time
December 21st, 2018
Life’s but a walking shadow, a poor player who struts and frets his hour upon the stage and then is heard no more. -Macbeth Our limited time, our brief candle as Shakespeare’s Macbeth had it earlier in the ...
Why interest rates are rising long-term
November 23rd, 2018
There are growing expectations that the current cycle of rising interest rates will result in a deflationary recession. While a credit crisis is increasingly likely to evolve in the coming months, it is a highly inflationary situation. A ...
We should ditch GDP as a measure of economic activity
October 10th, 2018
This article exposes the false economic concepts behind GDP, which is only the visible tip of a large iceberg of economic deceit. Describing an increase in GDP as economic growth owes its meagre validity to imprecise definition. An ...
End Of Credit Cycle Dynamics
August 15th, 2018
While there is no starting-pistol that tells us the final phase of the credit cycle leading into the next credit crisis has actually begun, nearly all the signs point to it being the case for the US economy. ...
