Search Results for: Consumer Prices Index
Measuring Recession
September 20th, 2019
Using nominal GDP, or GDP deflated by the CPI, as the principal guide to the state of the economy is a common mistake which will eventually prove very costly. Having convinced themselves that GDP measures economic progress, government ...
China or US?
September 9th, 2019
China has made some silly errors in its conflict with the US, reflecting the arrogance that often afflicts every state actor. But the appearance that China is being backed into a corner over Huawei, trade tariffs and Hong ...
The reasoning behind Gold’s breakout
August 1st, 2019
Gold’s dramatic move above $1400 has caught the investment establishment by surprise. Physical gold ETFs, as a proxy for direct portfolio investment, amount to only 0.05% of the estimated $250 trillion of global investment values. As well as ...
Stalling Markets
July 22nd, 2019
The combination of American trade protectionism and the end of a failing credit expansion is leading into a global economic downturn, and potentially a systemic crisis. Meanwhile, investors still believe more extreme monetary policies will stabilise economies and ...
The US Government Debt Crisis
May 2nd, 2019
This article explains why the US Government is ensnared in a debt trap from which there is no escape. Its finances are spiralling out of control. In the context of a rapidly slowing global economy, the budget deficit ...
British pound gains on mounting possibility of a delay in Brexit deadline
February 28th, 2019
Sterling added to gains on Wednesday as investors increasingly focused on mounting possibility of a delay to the March 29 Brexit deadline. The U.K. currency defended its gains from the past sessions, becoming among the best performing major currency. ...
Currencies threatened by a credit crisis
February 15th, 2019
In this article I draw attention to the similarities between the current economic situation and that of 1929, and the threat to today’s unbacked currencies. There is the coincidence of trade protectionism with the top of the credit cycle, ...
Trade wars – a catalyst for economic crisis
February 1st, 2019
In my last article I used a proven accounting identity to show that the end result of President Trump’s trade tariffs would be to increase the trade deficit, assuming there is no change in the savings rate. The savings ...
Emerging-Market currencies drop; Latam stocks fell sharply
January 23rd, 2019
Latin American stocks fell sharply on Tuesday, in line with world stocks, as global growth slowdown fears gripped markets after the International Monetary Fund cuts its growth forecast. The IMF revised its 2019 global growth forecast lower than what ...
Markets are all about flows
January 8th, 2019
This article looks at prospective supply and demand factors for financial assets in the New Year and beyond. Investors should take into account money flowing into and out of financial assets as well as stock flows, particularly escalating ...
