Search Results for: US economy
Gold in 2016
January 8th, 2016
Advance signs of a global slump in economic activity emerged in 2015. Furthermore, the dollar’s strength, coupled with widening credit spreads confirms a global tendency for dollar-denominated debt to contract. These developments typically precede an economic and financial crisis ...
The Recession And Bear Market Of 2016, In Two Charts
December 23rd, 2015
Good friend Michael Pollaro just sent a couple of charts that show the US economy heading for a brick wall. The first illustrates what happens when business sales (the green line) turn negative. In the previous two boom/bust cycles, ...
Commodity losses
December 18th, 2015
Markets have been extraordinarily complacent about the bad debts building up in the financial system. In the wake of the Fed’s decision to raise interest rates this week, the effect on debt was barely mentioned in the subsequent analysis ...
What Investors May Expect in 2016
December 17th, 2015
2016 is expected to be a trying year for the financial markets and global economy as a whole. Several analysts are predicting a stock market crash, while others are forecasting a deeper recession in Europe. While there’s no way ...
Advice to the Prime Minister/President
November 19th, 2015
Your country faces a stagnating economy. Let us assume your Prime Minister (or President if that is who holds the executive power) seeks advice from two imaginary economists. PM: You two economists have different views on what our economic ...
Why OPEC Can’t Win The Oil Price War
November 19th, 2015
As the oil price war unfolds it becomes easier to understand the outcome. There is ongoing speculation about the motives of the main players. Is it a battle between OPEC and US shale? Or a battle by the U SA and ...
Asia Pacific stock markets continue slide as Chinese inflation weakens
November 10th, 2015
Investors have taken fright at the prospect that the US Fed could raise interest rates at the point when China is experiencing persistently weak demand Stock markets in Asia Pacific have continued to slide as the spectre of higher borrowing ...
Fiat money quantity update
October 30th, 2015
After a few months of slower growth, FMQ has picked up again. FMQ is the sum of True Money Supply (as defined by the Austrian School of Economics), plus the banking system’s reserves and other banking-related liabilities on the ...
The Eurozone Crisis: Crystalizing the Narrative
October 13th, 2015
The economy of the eurozone makes the US economy look like a picture of robust health by comparison. Richard Baldwin and Francesco Giavazzi have edited The Eurozone CrisisA Consensus View of the Causesand a Few Possible Solutions, a VoxEU.org book ...
NIRP, its likelihood and effect on commodities
October 5th, 2015
In last week’s article I pointed out that negative interest rates should lead to a general shift in consumer preferences from money towards essential goods. Central bankers may wish for this outcome on a controlled basis to allow them ...
